The
media is seemingly constantly awash with stories of dread; from the
'fiscal cliff' to the 'debt crisis' to various acts of violence and
political turmoil we seem to be inundated with threats. Leaders of
democracies, self-appointed intellectuals, and various flavors of
activists seem to be constantly 'doing something' about these
threats.
But
very little seems to change over time. Despite the sweat, treasure,
tears, and blood spilled over these issues we seem to be frozen in a
sort of status quo in many critical areas.
This
is because of a critical error made at the very beginning; a failure
of threat evaluation. By this I mean, bluntly, that the vast majority
of people in positions of influence are too trapped within their
paradigm to properly evaluate threats to society, leading them to
vast amounts of waste. The result is true threats are ignored and
solving phantom threats produces phantom results.
Here
is a blunt example of what I mean.
A
Stone Age tribe is wandering near the edge of their territory when
they encounter a group of strangers. These strangers seem much life
the tribe; they wear face paint (although the patterns are different)
and matching clothing and are armed with spears or clubs. The leader
of the tribe counts only 6 strangers, as opposed to the 9 tribesmen
with him. The man he thinks leads the strangers is armed with a club,
like the chief, as a sign of authority.
Thw
chief evaluates the strangers as a possible threat. While they are
fewer in number, the strangers are taller and broader than the
tribesmen, which could be a factor. The strangers' spears have
unusual points – their spear points are very long and serrated
along one edge; they would inflict terrible wounds! And their spears
are short and heavy, obviously designed for the big strangers to use
them as clubs as well as thrusting weapons.
But
his tribesmen have long spears designed to thrust or to throw –
they will be able to keep the bigger strangers at bay. And each
tribesman carried two spears – they can throw one, killing or
crippling a few , and then surround the rest easily. The chief also
looks at his own two-handed war club, a massive weapon inlaid with
sharp stones. The leader of the strangers has only a small hand club,
more a symbol of leadership than a weapon!
His
threat evaluation over, the chief strides forward confidently, ready
to cow the strangers and, if necessary, destroy them.
But
the leader of the strangers is also evaluating the situation. His
squad of Royal Marines has bayonets fixed and full clips in their
assault rifles. He has his 9mm pistol out, just in case. He looks at
the 10 men his squad stumbled upon with their primitive speaks and no
body armor and strides forward confidently....
Trapped within his paradigm, the chieftain is evaluating the wrong
threat. Indeed, he cannot even begin to understand what threats he is
facing.
Many
leaders of the world, self-described intellectuals, journalists, and
policy makers are in similar positions; so caught up within their own
paradigm that they cannot grasp the true dangers staring them in the
face. Between a false dichotomy of Left and Right, a rejection of
objective morality, the belief that certain facts are merely 'social
constructs', and the various national and regional concepts (such as
Americans thinking Libertarians are conservative) this blindness to
true threats is, perhaps, inevitable.
This
is why Edan is sometimes slow to respond, or takes a seemingly
contrarian position (or no position). We must focus on real threats
and on understanding what they are and where they are coming from.
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